If you had to bet money on the 6th nominee....

If you had to bet money on what the 6th nominee was of each Oscar race over the last few years, who would you chose. My picks below:

6th Nominees:

2006:

Picture: Dreamgirls

Director: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls

Actor: Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat

Actress: Maggie Gyllenhall, Sherrybaby

S. Actor: Brad Pitt, Babel

S. Actress: Emily Blunt, Devil Wears Prada

O. Screenplay: Zach Helm, Stranger than Fiction

A. Screenplay: Paul Haggis & William Broyles Jr, Flags of Our Fathers

2005:

Picture: Walk the Line

Director: Fernando Meirelles, Constant Gardener

Actor: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

Actress: Zhang Zhiyi, Memoirs of a Giesha

S. Actor: Don Cheadle, Crash

S. Actress: Scarlett Johannson, Match Point

O. Screenplay: Thomas Bezucha, The Family Stone

A. Screenplay: Deborah Moggach, Pride and Prejudice

2004:

Picture: Hotel Rwanda

Director: Marc Forrester, Finding Neverland

Actor: Liam Niesson, Kinsey

Actress: Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. 2

S. Actor: Peter Sargasaard, Kinsey

S. Actress: Meryl Streep, Manchurian Candidate

O. Screenplay: Taylor Hackford & James L. White, Ray

A. Screenplay: Patrick Marber, Closer

2003:

Picture: Cold Mountain

Director: Anthony Minghellia, Cold Mountain

Actor: Russell Crowe, Master and Commander

Actress: Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog

S. Actor: Albert Finney, Big Fish

S. Actress: Scarlett Johannson, Lost in Translation

O. Screenplay: John Logan, The Last Samurai

A. Screenplay: Patrick O’Brien & Peter Weir, Master and Commander

2002:

Picture: Far From Heaven

Director: Alexander Payne, About Schmidt

Actor: Richard Gere, Chicago

Actress: Maggie Gyllenhall, The Seceretary

Supp. Actor: Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven

Supp. Actress: Edie Falco, Sunshine State

O. Screenplay: David Benioff, 25^th Hour

A. Screenplay: Chris Hampton and Robert Schenkman, The Quiet American

2001:

Picture: Black Hawk Down

Director: Todd Fields, In the Bedroom

Actor: Gene Hackman, Royal Tannenbaums

Actress: Naiomi Watts, Mullholland Drive

Supp. Actor: Jude Law, A.I.

Supp. Actress: Gwenyth Paltrow, Royal Tannenbaums

O. Screenplay: David Lynch, Mullholland Drive

A. Screenplay. Ken Nolan, Black Hawk Down

2000:

Picture: Almost Famous

Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, Oh Brother Where Art Thou

Actor: Michael Douglas, Wonderboys

Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Supp. Actor: Gary Oldman, The Contender

Supp. Actress: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Traffic

O. Screenplay: Rod Lurie, The Contender

A. Screenplay: David Self, 13 Days

1999:

Picture: Talented Mr. Ripley

Director: Anthony Minghellia, Talented Mr. Ripley

Actor: Matt Damon, Talented Mr. Ripley

Actress: Reese Whitherspoon, Election

Supp. Actor: Al Pacino, The Insider

Supp. Actress: Cameron Diaz, Being John Malkovitch

O. Screenplay: Woody Allen, Sweet and Lowdown

A. Screenplay: John Roach and Mark Sweeney, The Straight Story

Definitive top ten list part I: 2005

My take on a definitive list for 2005's top 10 films. This isn't my own personal opinion but what I believe the overall consensus was. Call it "10 Most Successful Films."

2005:

1. Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee

Usually, in my system, the best picture Oscar gets a film an automatic number one spot, at least in the near future. However, it seems Brokeback Mountain which sparked an angry contingent of people insisting the film was robbed has more going for it. Like Saving Private Ryan, the last #1 on my lists to lose the best picture race, the closeness between Brokeback and Crash is reflected in the classic director/picture oscar split. More than that, however, Brokeback Mountain is ranked number one on both cream of the crop and all critics on the moviecritictop10.com. Unlike Crash, it was recognized by pretty much every major group (including the Golden Globes) as among the elite, and was one of three films to score an A- on EW’s sampling of entertainment reporters. It also swept the LA and NYC film critic awards, where Crash didn’t win any critics’ groups. It also made it big on the pop culture phenomenon and was one of the highest grossing pictures in the month of December. Brokeback also garnered oscar buzz and came closer to winning Oscars for more of its actors. Crash won the SAG award for best ensemble but it’s a better indication of the film in my opinion if it got more buzz for its Oscars, and Heath Ledger and Michelle Williams were contenders to win their categories.

2. Crash, Paul Haggis

Crash did win best picture and had an intense following, that included nation’s top film critic Roger Ebert who ranked it #1. It did win the best picture and secured its place in history and while people refer back to Crash’s “upset” as a debate between what should’ve won between “Crash” or “Brokeback Mountain,” so history is placing it in the top 2, at least.

3. Good Night and Good Luck, George Clooney

The debate over rankings 3-5 of the best picture nominees is tough, but Good Night and Good Luck was considered a lock for best picture early on and was recognized by more groups including National Board of Review which gave it the top award, the Golden Globes. It also placed 3^rd on movie critic’s top 10.

4. Munich, Stephen Spielberg

The debate between Munich and Capote might be decided by more people thinking that Munich was #1 oscar-winner potential, whereas Capote was just thought of to be #1. Directing Guild and Producing guild noms were also awarded to Munich. The main argument to be made, is that it had critics such as Boston Globe, Rolling Stone and Newsweek calling it either his best film ever or best film in years, and you have to make the film pretty damn good to top Saving Private Ryan and Schindler’s List. It was thought of by some to be comparable, at least. Munich was also a better all around production than Capote scoring more oscar nods total in categories such as editing and score.

5. Capote, Bennett Miller

Capote had an incredibly high rottentomato rating going for it, and it was a frontrunner for the SAG ensemble award, but just because it was garnering praise for an ensemble shouldn’t be equated with best picture buzz, and it appealed to writers like Stephen King who put it high on his top ten list. Was a possible upset contender for screenplay nominee. Its top 5 status was solidified with a directors guild award and Oscar nomination for its director in addition to its picture nomination, considering its director is an unknown.

6. Walk the Line, James Mangold

Walk the Line was considered the just-missed the nomination category. It won best musical/comedy and acting prizes for both of its leads. It’s box office returns and word-of-mouth popularity was stronger than any other also-ran. This might have been in part due to it being comparable in quality to last year’s nominee Ray. Slight indications like the hosts of Good Morning America asking “Why not Walk the Line?” and winning “EW’s who got snubbed” poll. It also appeared in place of Munich on the Producers Guild of America poll.

7. Constant Gardener, Fernando Meirelles

Seven is a tight race between History of Violence and Constant Gardener. Between the two, Constant Gardener was received just a little better based on the more popular reputation of Meirelles (although Cronenberg is going more mainstream, his fan base is very much a small niche). The marriage of Meirelles and novelist La Carre led to a screenplay nom. Constant Gardener was an almost universally liked film with powerful performances that garnered more oscar buzz and better results (including walking away with an Oscar for the film) than History of Violence. It also garnered more total noms than some of the other films with editing and score noms. Its golden globe nom and director nom at the golden globes help its case as well. Also on Rolling Stone’s top 10.

8. History of Violence, David Cronenberg

History of Violence didn’t do as well at the Oscars as Constant Gardener squeaking a best supporting actor and screenplay nod. It also didn’t have as much word of mouth, hype, or box office draw as any other top ten contender but those who saw it liked it plenty. It was ranked 2nd on moviecritictop10.com for the year and finished a top one of the entertainment weekly top ten lists. It was just one of three films to get an A- on Entertainment Weekly’s newspaper sampling, made the top ten on Rolling Stone and Premiere’s top 10. It also appeared on 2 of the 3 New York Critic’s top 10. It was also EW’s pick in their oscar preview for the 6^th director slot.

9. Syrianna, Stephen Gaughan

The general critical response was the film was good but a little confusing. Looking at it in more detail, Syrianna did quite well and got a lot of top ten nods. It was Roeper’s top film of the year and Ebert’s 2nd, it placed 10^th on moviecritictop10.com, 3^rd on Peter Traver’s list and it was on both NBR and AFI’s top 10 nods with NBR’s screenplay award. It also was one of a handful of films to walk away with an award on oscar night and it merited an ensemble nod at the SGA’s and a WGA nod

10. King Kong, Peter Jackson/Match Point, Woody Allen

This is a virtual tie between the two. The main arguments for Woody Allen’s inclusion are its high number of 4 star reviews and overall satisfaction of viewers, the fact that that it’s considered a return to form for Woody Allen and its golden globe nod.

King Kong did walk away with 3 Oscars and transcended the blockbuster genre to get oscar buzz. With the saturatuation of big-budget blockbusters as of late, that is an increasingly hard task to pull off. It’s rotten tomato rating was very high and it placed 5^th on moviecritictop10.com’s top 10 list. It’s box office take was pretty high and fitting for a blockbuster.

How the oscars can be unkind to someone like Ed Zwick

Yesterday when I saw Departed, one of the trailers showed was for the upcoming movie "The Blood Diamond."

I think Ed Zwick is a great director who has really carved a niche for himself as a maker of great epics (Glory, Legends of the Fall, Last Samurai), but I worry that he won't be remembered in history as at least a notable director of the past couple decades. I think oscars have hurt him quite a bit, particularly in his last film The Last Samurai and Glory.

Take Last Samurai, other than a minor quibble over historic accuracy (Samurais were apparently not nice people), it was really hailed as a great film. To me the film was flawless if only slightly less effective than Mystic River, Seabiscuit, and Cold Mountain, and with the short space for only 5 films to get that oscar nominations per year, it lost out. Still, i hope it's not forgotten in history. I think that Blood Diamond is also gonna be hailed as a really well-made film and get its share of 4-star ratings but might also just miss the oscar cut, and that adds to his consistency but might hurt him because usually directors are remembered by how many oscar nods they've accumulated.

That's at least one negative consequence for the increasing attention the Oscars gets year after year and how the Oscars are turning into the future guidebook to film buffs over what seperated the great films from the ordinary. Getting that oscar nomination has turned into the goal of filmmakers today doing it for art rather than money. Films that fall just short of the mark get forgotten amid the debates over what's oscar-worthy and what's not oscar-worthy.

How about just plain good? That's what oscars were invented for in the first place. To promote good films.

Other films that will undoubtedly be hurt by not having receieved that best picture nomination or fallen short on other oscar nominations:
2005:
Walk the Line-Although it did win a best actress win, it might not be as well-remembered 20 years from now as Ray
Constant Gardener
History of Violence
King Kong-An oscar nomination in a non-technical category (of course it was technically better than any other film, it was made by Peter Jackson, that's not saying much) would have cemented as more than just your typical big-budget special effects fest
Terrence Malick's The New World-Released at the wrong time of year and reedited upon release, it got lost amid the heavy volume of films released during December
Match Point
Hopefully students of Woody Allen, Peter Jackson, David Cronenberg, and Fernando Meirelles will remember these respective entries into their filmographies as they were all noteworthy.

2004-
Closer
Hotel Rwanda-Ironically, it's critical success is being repeated in a bunch of Africa-centered movies this year like Babel, To Catch a Fire, and the Blood Diamond, so hopefully Hotel Rwanda will stick around
The Terminal-I think it's interesting that Stephen Spielberg and Tom Hanks stand by this movie as a great film despite critics giving mixed reviews and people on Saturday Night Live making fun of the film

2003-
Cold Mountain-Hyped beyond belief as a surefire best picture than dropped at the last minute, probably the 6th film candidate, this was probably the film that suffered most from an oscar snub
Last Samurai-Covered in the beginning
Big Fish-Did develop a sort of cult following though, and box office success
21 Grams-Although it might help his chances a little later on with Babel
House of Sand and Fog-Another great picture that was an oscar nomination would have validated. It had oscar-caliber written all over it with its classical story, cinematography, novel adaptation roots and big name actors

2002-
Road to Perdition-A worthy follow-up for Mendes for American Beauty
Catch Me If You Can
Adaptation
About Schmidt
Far From Heaven-This one definitely got hurt

Films like Adaptation and About Schmidt were redeemed a couple years later when Sideways and Eternal Sunshine won screenwriting awards for the same screenwriters in 2004