*Disclaimer: This post isn't timely, I know. I acknowledge nothing is particularly timely about my blog.
I wrote a couple pieces on the World Cup on my facebook notes section recently and wanted to share them here for posterity's sake.
One of them has little to do with this particular world cup. Rather, the last five World Cups. More to the point, I wanted to find some way to measure overall performance in the last five World Cups. I wanted to show how difficult it was to be consistently good from World Cup.
What inspired me to do this was this article.
In it, Donovan defends his team's World Cup performance saying:
"People assume that there's linear progression from World Cup to World Cup," Donovan said. "It couldn't be further from the truth. France and Italy were in the final four years ago and neither of them got out of their group.
"The fact that we've now qualified for six in a row, and that we've gotten out of our group two out of the last three, I think is a fantastic achievement for our country."
So I decided to try to measure it. I didn't look at World Cup 1990 but, rather 1994. That was the year I personally started watching the World Cup and I really can't imagine that soccer existed before 1994.
Nonetheless, here's my system and I just let the math do the talking. Do comment if you're a soccer fan:
1. Not qualifying for a World Cup -0.5
2. Qualifying for a World Cup but not making it out of the first round +0.25
3. After this, each round you make it to is an added point: 2nd round: 1, Quarters: 2, Semis: 3, Runner-Up: 4, Champion: 5
There are also some stipulations:
4. Winning the 3rd place game is an extra 0.25
5. Winning all games in opening round and getting 9 points is an extra 0.25
6. Winning your group and being a top seed in the second round only to be upset in round 2 merits more credit than just losing in the 2nd round as a bottom seed so US in 2010, Spain and Switzerland in 2006, Mexico and Turkey in 2002 and Nigeria and Romania in 98 get 1.25 instead of 1
7. If your country is not in existence or was newly formed (i.e. anything east of the Iron Curtain in 1994) then you don't get a penalty for failing to qualify for a World Cup
8. Ireland doesn't get -.5 for missing 2010 because they were cheated out of a spot.
So here are the rankings (along with points earned in each of the last 5 Cups):
1. Brazil 18.5 (5 4 5.25 2.25 2)
2. Germany 14.75 (2 2 4 3.5 3.25)
3. Italy 12.75 (4 2 1 5 0.25)
4. Spain 11 (2 0.25 2.25 1.5 5)
5. Holland 9.75 (2 3 -.5 1 4.25)
6. France 9.25 (-.5 5.25 .25 4 .25)
7. Argentina 7.75 (1 2.25 0.25 2 2)
8. England 5.5 (-.5 1 2 2 1)
9. Mexico 5.25 (1 1 1.25 1 1)
10. US 4.75 (1 .25 2 .25 1.25)
South Korea 4.75 (.25 .25 3 .25 1)
12. Sweden 4.5 (3.25 -.5 1.25 1 -.5)
13. Paraguay 2.75 (-0.5 1 1 0.25 2)
14. Portugal 3.5 (-0.5 -0.5 .25 3.25 1)
15. Croatia 3.25 (X 3.25 .25 .25 -0.5)
16. Denmark 2.5 (-.5 2 1.25 -.5 .25)
17. Nigeria 2.25 (1 1.25 .25 -.5 .25)
Japan 2.25 (-.5 .25 1.25 .25 1)
19. Uruguay 1.75 (-.5 -.5 .25 -.5 3)
Bulgaria 1.75 (3 .25 -.5 -.5 -.5)
Romania 1.75 (2 1.25 -.5 -.5 -.5)
22. Ireland 1.5 (1 -.5 1 -.5 X)
Ghana 1.5 (-.5 -.5 -.5 1 2)
Switzerland 1.5 (1 -.5 -.5 1.25 0.25)
25. Saudi Arabia 1.25 (1 .25 .25 .25 -.5)
Turkey 1.25 (-.5 -.5 3.25 -.5 -.5)
Coming Up.............a post on the all-World Cup team.
(I've already written this one as well, but I need to write it up a little more typo-free and correctly punctuated)
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