Previously, I made a top 50 of the decade list. This entry is if they came up with a way to measure every film critic in America, every film buff and every academy award voter and they came up with some perfectly weighted system to measure the best films of the decade, here's what I would imagine the results would be. indicate which films are too high or low on this list. Also, I am not including more than one of any film series. AGAIN, THIS IS NOT IN ANY WAY A PERSONAL OPINION
1. Lord of the Rings: ROTK, Peter Jackson**-The definitive blockbuster of the decade. It had the trifecta of cultural buzz, box office success and critical success.
2. There Will be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson *-Paul Thomas Anderson is a director with an increasingly more respected track record as his 90's films Boogie Nights and Magnolia have retroactively gained stature. "There Will Be Blood" has an Oscar-winning performance from Daniel Day-Lewis who's considered by critics to be a rare gem (especially since he rarely acts in movies). It's a film that touches on the themes of capitalism gone awry so it gets points for capturing the zitgiest as well as for having a bold, artistic vision.
3. City of God, Fernando Meirelles + -The '00s were a decade when international films had more of a fighting chance of entering the American mainstream if they were good enough. City of God was probably the most universally acknowledged as brilliant among those films that were widely seen by American audiences. It also has the gangster genre going for it, which is one that always gets critical acclaim.
4. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Michael Gondry-If the best-of-the decade retrospectives are to be believed, you would think that Eternal Sunshine and Sideways were the two front-runners for Best picture in the 2005 Oscar race rather than Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. My theories as to Eternal Sunshine's retroactive rise in popularity: 1) Broken storylines have defined the decade well and Eternal Sunshine had a fragmented storyline that didn't invalidate the story (i.e. Vanilla Sky, Mullholland Drive) but provided enough spin on the conventional love story 2) It merged technology with storytellling so it was kind of the next level of storytelling in that way 3) It was the most love storyesque of the three Charlie Kaufman films 4) Michael Gondry, Jim Carrey, Tom Wilkinson, Kate Winslet all have high Q ratings at the moment. Gondry was famous for music videos and short films and film students eat that s--- up
5. Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee *-A love story between two guys that was slated for Oscar Gold. Has anything like that even come close to happening before? The performances in this film are already iconic.
6. Dark Knight, Christopher Nolan-It ignited a self-feeding euphoria of "Best film ever??!" talk when it ascended to #1 on the imdb. In its defense, it redefined and transcended the superhero film genre which is THE genre who's growth defined the decade. The film boasted sensational acting, sensational choreography, sensational sound-editing, a sensational score and a sensational adaptation making it primed to sweep the Oscars in a number of ways.
7. Pan's Labyrinth, Guillermo del Toro-In terms of unquestionably innovative, this is it. The idea of taking the war picture and telling it from the point-of-view from kids and it was one of the three Amigos' films: 3 Mexican filmmakers all had big Welcome to Hollywood hits in 2006: Pan's Labrynth, Gonzalu's Babel and Cuaron's aforementioned Children of Men.
It was ranked #1 by metacritic for films of the last 10 years.
8. Wall-E, Andrew Staunton-This film truly transcended the animated film genre. It was bold enough to forego dialogue for the movie's first act and bolder still in choosing to make it's love story about two robots. It had a message but didn't come off as preachy.
9. Mulholland Drive, David Lynch +-Lynch's film had the entire audience (including the critics) simultaneously scratching their heads at the end in confusion, but one of the supposed strengths of the film is that everyone went "Huh?" in union leading to one of the few moments of universality all decade long. It wasn't just the "Huh?" and the fact that people still couldn't figure it out but Lynch's disfigured narrative was engrossing enough that it remains one of Lynch's most widely-viewed and popular works.
10. Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle **-An internationally shot film that was gritty and inspiring. Nary a bad review in sight and a near sweep at the Oscars. As it stands, the second most popular best picture winner behind LOTR. Boyle is a filmmaker for the 21st Century and this film's Best Picture award signifies a promising career that has rightfully blossomed since Trainspotting in 1996.
11. Gladiator, Ridley Scott **-Not particularly ambitious but the direction, performances, and overall production values of the picture propelled it to a best picture win. Whether a genre film like Gladiator ages well is partially dependent on the genre's level of saturation at the time of relief. Fortunately, this Roman sandals epic captured audience imaginations and created both word-of-mouth and cultural resonance.
12. Children of Men, Alfonso Cuaron **-Guys like Peter Travers at Rolling Stone and Jim Emerson at Rogerebert.com put this on their top ten list. EW listed it as one of 25 films that will remain a classic. I've seen it and I'm not sure why it was so great but it was unquestionably bold. Boldness of vision is a keyword I'm using a lot to describe what attracts critics to these films.
13. Almost Famous, Cameron Crowe-This didn't earn an Oscar nomination but retroactively it would have if critics were voting again. I've seen it pop up practically everywhere from the AV Club's list to Culture Snob to MSN Movie's list to name a few. I believe it's enhanced reputation over the years has come about because after this film, Cameron Crowe didn't make a good film again. Elizabethtown (which I personally liked) was panned for being a little too eager to tug at the heartstrings and Vanilla Sky was somewhat of a mess. The film has aged well and is the epitome of Crowe's personal touch.
14. Departed, Martin Scorsese **-Scorsesee tried hard to get an Oscar with every film he made this decade and this struck Gold. Whether it's ambitious as his two prior films, this was universally considered a crowd-pleaser. It was also a higher grossing movie than Aviator or GONY.
15. Hurt Locker, Kathyn Bighelow**-The 2000s were far more war-filled than the last two decades and the struggle to translate the conflicts from that war onto the movie screen were
16. Traffic, Steve Soderbergh*-Among films complex enough to be able to win big raves in the short-term and still feel like a work of art ten years later, this makes the list. Soderbergh won best director and Stephen Gaghan (director of Syriana) won best adapted screenplay and if they were to revote 10 years later, my bet is they would still win. Making an star-sprinkled ensemble piece that's more than the sum of its parts is rare to pull off (With so many stars appearing for narratively irrelevant cameos, I'd argue that even The Player falls short of this mark), but Traffic makes it work. Unfortunately, Soderbergh would do the exact opposite (making a movie for little reason other than the fact that high profile stars agreed to be in it) with Ocean's 12.
17. The Pianist, Roman Polanski*-Polanski's deeply personal film about art's power to heal tragedy scored some unexpected awards in the best picture race of 2002. It's a film with fairly universal praise.
18. Spiderman II, Sam Raimi- Before the Dark Knight, Spiderman II rewrote the rule book on sequels. Following up on a film that shattered records, Raimi and the filmmakers amplified the narrative by adding new angles (Spiderman's choice to be Spiderman) and revived the Superhero genre by keeping the action grounded in reality. It's a format that has been used in most of the superhero genres this decade. In short, it's been a big influence.
19. Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood*-This has undoubtedly been the decade of Eastwood. His boldest directorial effort was telling a war story from the point of view from both sides. Whether this film changed the landscape of cinema like Unforgiven did or not, it won critics and audiences over. It was named the National Board of Review's best film of the year and made a lot of top ten lists.
20. No Country for Old Men, Joel and Ethan Coen **-It's not one that I particularly felt was worthy of best picture. Fractured endings are popular and the Coens, despite some inconsistency this decade, have overally come out of the aughts at the top of their game.
21. Lost in Translation, Sophia Coppola *-As Roger Ebert put it, this was a different kind of film that required the viewers to be patient and let love unfold at real-life pace. In a crowded year, the film eked out a best picture nomination and won a screenwriting Oscar for Sofia Coppolla
22. Memento, Christopher Nolan-The film's method of telling a story was a game changer at the time and the film holds up just as well now. Adapted from a short story by Nolan and his brother, this film was the world's first demonstration of Nolan's genius for telling a complex story and putting it to film. Curiously, Guy Pearce never got himself a slot on Christopher Nolan's preferred actor list for later movies
23. Avatar, James Cameron
24. Requiem for a Dream, Darren Aronofsky
25. Royal Tenenbaums, Wes Anderson
26. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Ang Lee *
27. Moulin Rouge!, Nicole Kidman
28. The Incredibles, Brad Bird
29. Far From Heaven, Todd Haynes
30. Chicago, Rob Marshall **
31. Little Miss Sunshine, Valerie Faris & Jonathan Dayton *
32. Grizzly Man, Warner Herzog
33. Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl, Gore Verbinski
34. Munich, Stephen Spielberg *
35. Up in the Air, Jason Reitman *
36. Borat, Larry Charles
37. Juno, Jason Reitman *
38. Casino Royale, Martin Campbell
39. Fahrenheit 911, Michael Moore
40. Prestige, Christopher Nolan
41. In America, Jim Sheridan
42. Michael Clayton, Tony Gileroy *
43. Hotel Rwanda, Terry George
44. Gangs of New York, Martin Scorsese *
45. Gosford Park, Rob Altman *-Altman had some struggles finding audiences in the 80's and some of the 90's, but he has a strong base of admirers and with his last few films before his death in 2006, he further cemented his legacy as one of the legends of film. Godsford Park scored Altman his 5th Oscar nomination for director and was his 3rd film to be nominated for best picture.
46. 25th Hour, Spike Lee-25th Hour is making its way on some end of the year lists for the wrong reasons as far as I'm concerned: People are making too much of it as an allegory about 9/11 but some people (like Roger Ebert) just acknowledge that it's an excellent film
47. Mystic River, Clint Eastwood*- This film would have won the Oscar for Eastwood if that pesky sequel Lord of the Rings wasn't in the way. It was an adaptation of a Dennis Lehane novel that audiences found stirring, well-acted, and emotionally resonant. It basically marked the rebirth of Clint and might have been overshadowed since by Million Dollar Baby, Letters, Changeling and Gran Torino, I've seen it sneak up on a few lists.
48. Talk to Her, Pedro Almodovar+- This list needs more foreign films and Almodovar is hard to ignore with his success in Volver, Bad Education, and
49. Little Children, Todd Fields-Fields made a couple of melodramas in this film and In the Bedroom that critics found quite effective
50. 21 Grams, Alejandro Inarritu Gonzalu-A.I.G. had 3 successful films. Amores Perros was entirely in subtitles so it had the most indie cred. Babel was the most well-publicized film because it got the Oscar nom. 21 Grams was the happy balance in the middle.
+=Best Director nom without a best picture nom
*=Best Picture nom
**=Best picture winner
Also under consideration: Dreamgirls, Bill Condon; Into the Wild, Sean Penn; Up, Pete Doctor (animated); United 93, Paul Greengrass; Bourne Ultimatum, Paul Greengrass; Crash, Paul Haggis; King Kong, Peter Jackson; Constant Gardener, Fernando Meirelles; Ray, Taylor Hackford; Blind Side, John Lee Hancock; Milk, Gus van Sant; Match Point, Woody Allen; Amilie, Jean Pierre Juenet; Big Fish, Tim Burton; Blood Diamond, Ed Zwick
Also, by year:
2000: Gladiator, Almost Famous, Traffic, CTHD, Reqiuem for a Dream
2001: Mullholland Drive, Moulan Rouge, Royal Tannenbaums, Momento, Godsford Park, (Amelie)
2002: City of God, Pianist, Far From Heaven, Gangs of New York, Chicago, 25th Hour, Talk to Her
2003: Lord of the Rings, Lost in Translation, Pirates, Mystic River, 21 Grams, In America,(Big Fish)
2004: Eternal Sunshine, Sideways, Spiderman II, Incredibles, Fahrenheit 911, Hotel Rwanda, (Ray)
2005: Brokeback Mtn, Munich, Grizzly Man, (King Kong, Crash, Match Point, Constant Gardener)
2006: Departed, Children of Men, Pan's Labrynth, Letters from Iwo Jima, Casino Royale, Little Miss Sunshine, Borat, Prestige, Little Children (United 93, Blood Diamond, Dreamgirls))
2007: There Will be Blood, No Country, Michael Clayton, Juno (Into the Wild, Bourne Ultimatum)
2008: Dark Knight, Wall-E, Slumdog Millionaire (Milk)
2009: Hurt Locker, Avatar, Up in the Air, (Up, Blind Side)
This blog is sporadically maintained by freelance journalist Orrin Konheim (he regularly writes at http://www.patreon.com/okjournalist) who has been professionally published in over three dozen publications. Orrin was a kid who watched too much TV growing up but didn't discover the joy of film writing until 2003 when he posted his first IMDB user review and got hooked. Orrin runs adult education zoom courses on how to be published, as well as a film of the month club
Showing posts with label Pan's Labrynth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pan's Labrynth. Show all posts
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Monday, January 22, 2007
my oscar predictions
I've been looking through some of these oscar sites and have devised my own predictions but I think the oscar sites are having this problem of perceiving that "oscar buzz" is some sort of wildly fluctuating barometer. One of the oscar sites I went to, described "Pan's Labrynth" and "Children of Men" as surging ahead. I think in reality, film's aren't surging or falling in some kind of race, it's simply that our perception of how the films are changing as some new group comes out with an award. That might be part of the fun, anyway, that people love the oscar race so much. Nevertheless, even though i am somewhat tired, i thought i would make some predictions in the event that i am completely right and have noone to tell that to. By posting them with a timestamp that comes before the oscars are announced, i have some proof.
My predictions aren't really that far off from what anyone else has. They're in order of the degree of certainty that they'll be nominated, not n
Best Picture:
1. Departed
2. Dreamgirls
3. Babel
4. The Queen
5. Letters from Iwo Jima
Runner-Up: Little Miss Sunshine
I loved Little Miss Sunshine, but i thought i'd mix it up. I still don't see why people wouldn't vote for Letters from Iwo Jima. Honestly, though, i really can't decide between the two, but i'll take a risk. Queen, like Capote last year, is good but not great. Not grandiose or bold enough in ambition to really feel like an oscar contender, but it will unfortunately make the list anyway. Still, not so bad. To have Dreamgirls, Babel, Departed and either Letters of Little Miss Sunshine makes it a great year.
Director:
1. Martin Scorsesee, The Departed
2. Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel
3. Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
4. Stephen Frears, The Queen
5. Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Runner-Up: Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labrynth
Everyone's all over Pan's Labrynth lately, and I'm starting to think it might possibly be a masterpiece of a film that the academy would be foolish not to reward, but here in this category, i think it's a bit competitive. Iwo Jima is getting 4 star reviews all across the board and has already won a golden globe as well as the NBR, it would be foolish to think Eastwood would get left out and that some of the Iwo Jima buzz is lost. He's the success story of the decade. I also really can't see how Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu could not get a best director nom. He's one of the top 3 pictures and next to Scorsesee, i think he's the most secure director. People have their doubts about Condon a little and The Queen was seen more as a triumph in acting, but they all have a better chance than that married couple. For mixing-up purposes, I don't like, though when the directors and films match up, so perhaps i'd want Sunshine to get the picture nom and Eastwood to get the director nom.
Original Screenplay:
1. The Queen
2. Little Miss Sunshine
3. Babel
4. Stranger than Fiction
5. Pan's Labrynth
Runner-Up: Bobby
I think Bobby is an endearing piece that wins the audience over emotionally and not neccessarily technically (as in, you're thinking "what a great storyline!"). The storyline's a bit muddled up with too many unneccessary parts, but i'm rooting for it heavily. Stranger than Fiction was a superbly written screenplay and i hope it gets a part, and Pan's Labrynth I'll give Bobby's spot to. Little Miss Sunshine is very deserving.
Adapted Screenplay:
1. William Moynahan, The Departed
2. Todd Field and Tom Perrota, Little Children
3. Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal
4. William Boyle and Paul Haggis, Flags of Our Fathers
5. Garrison Keillor, Prairie Home Companion
Runner-Up: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
The screenplay awards are often an unofficial top 10 list from the academy, as they give an indication of what the academy might have nominated if they were aloud 5 extra films in the best picture category. That being said, Little Children was a top 10 film, pretty much, and it's writing-heavy so people are pretty eager to reward it there. The Departed is a certainty, pretty much due to the best picture lock and due to the fact that people are familiar with the source material and like what Scorsesee and Co. did with it. Notes on a Scandal's Patrick Marber just missed out on a nomination 2 years ago for his adaptation of Closer, so he'll get rewarded here, I think. People are not considering the fondness people had for Rob Altman and that should lend itself to a screenplay nom, in my opinion. Flags, while having been overshadowed by Iwo Jima, was still considered by many people to be an impressive film, and they like what they did with the adaptation. Thank You For Smoking, I'm not rooting for and I think it was too early in the year. Devil Wears Prada, I just think is too lightweight. In fact, I'm surprised that other groups have given Devil Wears Prada such praise and I think that maybe the academy will come to their senses and realize it's not that good. Since Dremagirls is up for best picture, and Condon has a couple noms under his built, one of which was for adapting a musical to the screen, I think if the Dreamgirls love is heavy enough, he'll get a nom.
Best Actor:
1. Leo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
2. Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland
3. Peter O'Toole, Venus
4. Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
5. Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Runner-Up: Ken Wattanabe, Letters from Iwo Jima (also Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat)
I think that DiCaprio will get enough votes for both of his parts to guarantee him at least one it onto the list. In other words, even if his votes are split between two roles, you can divide his votes in half and I think he'd still make it. Whitaker, O'Toole, and Smith have been locks for a while, and while some people are thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen will make it onto the shortlist, I hope that won't happen. It's simply because Baron Cohen wasn't acting in the conventional sense and why not award it to an actor like Gosling.
Actress:
1. Helen Mirren, The Queen
2. Penelope Cruz, Volver
3. Meryl Streep, Devil Wears Prada
4. Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
5. Kate Winslet, Little Children
Runner-Up: Annette Benning, Running with Scissors
I think the categories been set for a while with Winslet and Benning being interchangeable. I do think Benning is the spoiler, though, and not Gyllenhall. I really don't think that many people, even among the academy, have even seen Sherrybaby, and they might not have picked it out from under their screeners.
Supporitng Actor:
1. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
2. Djimon Hotsou, Blood Diamond
3. Michael Sheen, The Queen
4. Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
5. Brad Pitt, Babel
Runner-Up: Jack Nicholson, The Departed
I'm putting two people i'd love to see in this category: Affleck and Hotsou, and balancing that with someone I don't really want, because I don't think karma would be that kind to me, to give me both Affleck and Hotsou and not have a complete dud in there as well. I think that Hotsou has a very charismatic performance and if he got a nomination for In America from an underdog position, he can certainly do it again.
Eddie Murphy, I think is rediculous. Some people remember him from his brilliant SNL days, but for someone who grew up in the 90s and haven't had a chance to see a lot of the 80's SNL episodes (they're not the ones that show in syndication, usually), Eddie Murphy to me, is a guy who makes bad movies (Pluto Nash, Showtime, Bowfinger). Still, Murphy to me is the lesser of two evils. I'm playing with karma here again, because i don't want Nicholson to be nominated again. Don't get me wrong, I like Nicholson, I just don't love him and don't want to see his legacy rise too high above other actors that I think were better than him. I realistically think it would take a miracle for him not to get the nom but here's hoping.
Ben Affleck, I think is very much still in the race as is Brad Pitt from Babel and Michael Sheen, who i didn't even particularly like, I would have trouble believing he'd be left out. A great portion of the acedemy has British roots or have performed in England in some capacity so to see someone do that good of an impression of Tony Blair can't be disregarded. I just don't like Michael Sheen though. That guy has some nerve daring to enter show business and not changing his last name. He clearly wants people to believe that he's a member of the Sheen family so he can ride the coattails of Martin and Charlie, but no sir. If it were up to me, I'd love to see Wahlberg in the top 5 for The Departed, but I don't think karma will be that kind.
Also, Jackie Earl Haley, I think came onboard a little too late. Alan Arkin doesn't have enough screentime, and I don't see the point in awarding a courtesy nomination to a veteran, when unlike Alan Alda in 2004, he already has a couple nominations under his belt and he won't win, I'm pretty sure.
Supporting Actress:
1. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2. Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
3. Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
4. Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
5. Adriana Barranza, Babel
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Devil Wears Prada
Somehow, I think Breslin or Barranza might not make it through, and I want to do something unpredictable just to distinguish myself. Everyone else has this top 5, but the bottom line is i like this line-up. I like Babel's international stars getting acclaim, I'd like to see Breslin, and while I'm not so crazy about Blanchett, she deserves it too. Personally, I felt Emily Blunt was the second best supporting female performance i saw this year (behind Meryl Streep's Prairie Home Companion turn) but I don't want to see Devil Wears Prada get too many awards. I could also see Sharon Stone getting in here.
Cinametography:
1. Babel
2. Good German
3. Apocolypto
4. Letters from Iwo Jima
5. Blood Diamond
Runner-Up: Children of Men
Good German might have gotten bad reviews but Sodebergh went to great lengths to get the film stock pretty much exactly as it was 50 years ago, i can't believe he'd be snubbed for cinematography. I think Pan's Labrynth will get a nom in the art direction category rather than this one. Blood Diamond should get a nom, in my opinion, for doing the dirty work of going on location and I think the resulting shots speak for themselves.
Art Direction:
1. Pan's Labrynth
2. Apocolypto
3. Children of Men
4. Dreamgirls
5. Bobby
Runner-Up: Letters from Iwo Jima
Bobby recreated that hotel pretty impressively, Pan's Labrynth, Apocolypto and Children of Men are all about the art direction. Dreamgirls, a lavish musical lends itself well to that stuff.
Song:
1. "Song of the Heart" Prince, Happy Feet
2. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" Arethra Franklin, Mary J Blige, Bobby
3. "A Father's Way" Seal, Pursuit of Happyness
4. "Shine on them" Nas, Blood Diamond
5. "Till the End of Time" DeVotchka, Little Miss Sunshine
Runner-Up: "Our Town" Thomas Newman, Cars
I think this is a song line-up I can live with. Blood Diamond's "Shine on Them" is about a subject which the songwriter is clearly passionate about. Seal gets a nomination for "Pursuit of Happyness" because he's Seal and he'll rock the Oscar awards ceremony. "Till the End of Time" is an awesome song that certainly complements the indie feel of the movie and adds another nomination for Little Miss Sunshine. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" is a collaboration of a past and present great and it gives a nom to Bobby which I'm happy with. Lastly, I'm not a big fan of anything called "Song of the Heart" as it sounds like a dumb song title, but since it won at the golden globes i'm inclined not to leave it out.
Costumes
1. Dreamgirls
2. Pan's Labrynth
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Apocolypto
5. Little Miss Sunshine
Runner-Up: Marie Antoinette
Again, since Dreamgirls is a showy musical, it's gotta have costumes. Pan's Labrynth has costumes that are impressive, I imagine. Flags of Our Fathers is a period military piece and has more recognizeable costumes than Letters and Little Miss Sunshine, I just happened to notice the way everyone in the family was dressed so much like their personalities and in colors that were finely tuned to the film's atmosphere.
Animated:
1. Happy Feet
2. Cars
3. Over the Hedge
Runner-Up: Ice Age 2
I haven't seen what anyone else put for this category but I'd imagine Happy Feet, having made the AFI top 10, is probably in. I think Cars is in and not just because it's Pixar, but because it actually is good and has some fans. Over the Hedge vs. Ice Age 2 is a harder pick. Over the Hedge was a fairly cleverly executed piece, I felt, although it was nothing special enough to stand out on its own. Still, Ice Age 2 is a sequel and sequels are just unoriginal vehicles that are designed to cash in on the popularity of their predecessor.
Visual Effects:
1. Pirates of the Carribean 2: Dead Man's Chest
2. X-Men 3
3. Superman Returns
Runner-Up: Poseidon
I think Poseidon is too CGIish to be impressive, but it has its moments. X-Men 3, possibly even more so than its predecessors had some very impressive visuals to boast. Bringing Magneto's metal-manipulating powers, Storm's hurricanes, Pyro's fire and Iceman's ice to life are all very impressive. Superman Returns was a failure of a movie because of its storyline and not because of its special effects, which even i concede were impressive. Lastly, the conversion from Bill Nighy to Davy Jones is enough to cement the visual effects oscar right there.
The rest of the categories, I'm really not qualified to give an opinion on, so I'll refrain.
My predictions aren't really that far off from what anyone else has. They're in order of the degree of certainty that they'll be nominated, not n
Best Picture:
1. Departed
2. Dreamgirls
3. Babel
4. The Queen
5. Letters from Iwo Jima
Runner-Up: Little Miss Sunshine
I loved Little Miss Sunshine, but i thought i'd mix it up. I still don't see why people wouldn't vote for Letters from Iwo Jima. Honestly, though, i really can't decide between the two, but i'll take a risk. Queen, like Capote last year, is good but not great. Not grandiose or bold enough in ambition to really feel like an oscar contender, but it will unfortunately make the list anyway. Still, not so bad. To have Dreamgirls, Babel, Departed and either Letters of Little Miss Sunshine makes it a great year.
Director:
1. Martin Scorsesee, The Departed
2. Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel
3. Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
4. Stephen Frears, The Queen
5. Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Runner-Up: Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labrynth
Everyone's all over Pan's Labrynth lately, and I'm starting to think it might possibly be a masterpiece of a film that the academy would be foolish not to reward, but here in this category, i think it's a bit competitive. Iwo Jima is getting 4 star reviews all across the board and has already won a golden globe as well as the NBR, it would be foolish to think Eastwood would get left out and that some of the Iwo Jima buzz is lost. He's the success story of the decade. I also really can't see how Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu could not get a best director nom. He's one of the top 3 pictures and next to Scorsesee, i think he's the most secure director. People have their doubts about Condon a little and The Queen was seen more as a triumph in acting, but they all have a better chance than that married couple. For mixing-up purposes, I don't like, though when the directors and films match up, so perhaps i'd want Sunshine to get the picture nom and Eastwood to get the director nom.
Original Screenplay:
1. The Queen
2. Little Miss Sunshine
3. Babel
4. Stranger than Fiction
5. Pan's Labrynth
Runner-Up: Bobby
I think Bobby is an endearing piece that wins the audience over emotionally and not neccessarily technically (as in, you're thinking "what a great storyline!"). The storyline's a bit muddled up with too many unneccessary parts, but i'm rooting for it heavily. Stranger than Fiction was a superbly written screenplay and i hope it gets a part, and Pan's Labrynth I'll give Bobby's spot to. Little Miss Sunshine is very deserving.
Adapted Screenplay:
1. William Moynahan, The Departed
2. Todd Field and Tom Perrota, Little Children
3. Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal
4. William Boyle and Paul Haggis, Flags of Our Fathers
5. Garrison Keillor, Prairie Home Companion
Runner-Up: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
The screenplay awards are often an unofficial top 10 list from the academy, as they give an indication of what the academy might have nominated if they were aloud 5 extra films in the best picture category. That being said, Little Children was a top 10 film, pretty much, and it's writing-heavy so people are pretty eager to reward it there. The Departed is a certainty, pretty much due to the best picture lock and due to the fact that people are familiar with the source material and like what Scorsesee and Co. did with it. Notes on a Scandal's Patrick Marber just missed out on a nomination 2 years ago for his adaptation of Closer, so he'll get rewarded here, I think. People are not considering the fondness people had for Rob Altman and that should lend itself to a screenplay nom, in my opinion. Flags, while having been overshadowed by Iwo Jima, was still considered by many people to be an impressive film, and they like what they did with the adaptation. Thank You For Smoking, I'm not rooting for and I think it was too early in the year. Devil Wears Prada, I just think is too lightweight. In fact, I'm surprised that other groups have given Devil Wears Prada such praise and I think that maybe the academy will come to their senses and realize it's not that good. Since Dremagirls is up for best picture, and Condon has a couple noms under his built, one of which was for adapting a musical to the screen, I think if the Dreamgirls love is heavy enough, he'll get a nom.
Best Actor:
1. Leo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
2. Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland
3. Peter O'Toole, Venus
4. Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
5. Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Runner-Up: Ken Wattanabe, Letters from Iwo Jima (also Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat)
I think that DiCaprio will get enough votes for both of his parts to guarantee him at least one it onto the list. In other words, even if his votes are split between two roles, you can divide his votes in half and I think he'd still make it. Whitaker, O'Toole, and Smith have been locks for a while, and while some people are thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen will make it onto the shortlist, I hope that won't happen. It's simply because Baron Cohen wasn't acting in the conventional sense and why not award it to an actor like Gosling.
Actress:
1. Helen Mirren, The Queen
2. Penelope Cruz, Volver
3. Meryl Streep, Devil Wears Prada
4. Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
5. Kate Winslet, Little Children
Runner-Up: Annette Benning, Running with Scissors
I think the categories been set for a while with Winslet and Benning being interchangeable. I do think Benning is the spoiler, though, and not Gyllenhall. I really don't think that many people, even among the academy, have even seen Sherrybaby, and they might not have picked it out from under their screeners.
Supporitng Actor:
1. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
2. Djimon Hotsou, Blood Diamond
3. Michael Sheen, The Queen
4. Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
5. Brad Pitt, Babel
Runner-Up: Jack Nicholson, The Departed
I'm putting two people i'd love to see in this category: Affleck and Hotsou, and balancing that with someone I don't really want, because I don't think karma would be that kind to me, to give me both Affleck and Hotsou and not have a complete dud in there as well. I think that Hotsou has a very charismatic performance and if he got a nomination for In America from an underdog position, he can certainly do it again.
Eddie Murphy, I think is rediculous. Some people remember him from his brilliant SNL days, but for someone who grew up in the 90s and haven't had a chance to see a lot of the 80's SNL episodes (they're not the ones that show in syndication, usually), Eddie Murphy to me, is a guy who makes bad movies (Pluto Nash, Showtime, Bowfinger). Still, Murphy to me is the lesser of two evils. I'm playing with karma here again, because i don't want Nicholson to be nominated again. Don't get me wrong, I like Nicholson, I just don't love him and don't want to see his legacy rise too high above other actors that I think were better than him. I realistically think it would take a miracle for him not to get the nom but here's hoping.
Ben Affleck, I think is very much still in the race as is Brad Pitt from Babel and Michael Sheen, who i didn't even particularly like, I would have trouble believing he'd be left out. A great portion of the acedemy has British roots or have performed in England in some capacity so to see someone do that good of an impression of Tony Blair can't be disregarded. I just don't like Michael Sheen though. That guy has some nerve daring to enter show business and not changing his last name. He clearly wants people to believe that he's a member of the Sheen family so he can ride the coattails of Martin and Charlie, but no sir. If it were up to me, I'd love to see Wahlberg in the top 5 for The Departed, but I don't think karma will be that kind.
Also, Jackie Earl Haley, I think came onboard a little too late. Alan Arkin doesn't have enough screentime, and I don't see the point in awarding a courtesy nomination to a veteran, when unlike Alan Alda in 2004, he already has a couple nominations under his belt and he won't win, I'm pretty sure.
Supporting Actress:
1. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2. Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
3. Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
4. Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
5. Adriana Barranza, Babel
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Devil Wears Prada
Somehow, I think Breslin or Barranza might not make it through, and I want to do something unpredictable just to distinguish myself. Everyone else has this top 5, but the bottom line is i like this line-up. I like Babel's international stars getting acclaim, I'd like to see Breslin, and while I'm not so crazy about Blanchett, she deserves it too. Personally, I felt Emily Blunt was the second best supporting female performance i saw this year (behind Meryl Streep's Prairie Home Companion turn) but I don't want to see Devil Wears Prada get too many awards. I could also see Sharon Stone getting in here.
Cinametography:
1. Babel
2. Good German
3. Apocolypto
4. Letters from Iwo Jima
5. Blood Diamond
Runner-Up: Children of Men
Good German might have gotten bad reviews but Sodebergh went to great lengths to get the film stock pretty much exactly as it was 50 years ago, i can't believe he'd be snubbed for cinematography. I think Pan's Labrynth will get a nom in the art direction category rather than this one. Blood Diamond should get a nom, in my opinion, for doing the dirty work of going on location and I think the resulting shots speak for themselves.
Art Direction:
1. Pan's Labrynth
2. Apocolypto
3. Children of Men
4. Dreamgirls
5. Bobby
Runner-Up: Letters from Iwo Jima
Bobby recreated that hotel pretty impressively, Pan's Labrynth, Apocolypto and Children of Men are all about the art direction. Dreamgirls, a lavish musical lends itself well to that stuff.
Song:
1. "Song of the Heart" Prince, Happy Feet
2. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" Arethra Franklin, Mary J Blige, Bobby
3. "A Father's Way" Seal, Pursuit of Happyness
4. "Shine on them" Nas, Blood Diamond
5. "Till the End of Time" DeVotchka, Little Miss Sunshine
Runner-Up: "Our Town" Thomas Newman, Cars
I think this is a song line-up I can live with. Blood Diamond's "Shine on Them" is about a subject which the songwriter is clearly passionate about. Seal gets a nomination for "Pursuit of Happyness" because he's Seal and he'll rock the Oscar awards ceremony. "Till the End of Time" is an awesome song that certainly complements the indie feel of the movie and adds another nomination for Little Miss Sunshine. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" is a collaboration of a past and present great and it gives a nom to Bobby which I'm happy with. Lastly, I'm not a big fan of anything called "Song of the Heart" as it sounds like a dumb song title, but since it won at the golden globes i'm inclined not to leave it out.
Costumes
1. Dreamgirls
2. Pan's Labrynth
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Apocolypto
5. Little Miss Sunshine
Runner-Up: Marie Antoinette
Again, since Dreamgirls is a showy musical, it's gotta have costumes. Pan's Labrynth has costumes that are impressive, I imagine. Flags of Our Fathers is a period military piece and has more recognizeable costumes than Letters and Little Miss Sunshine, I just happened to notice the way everyone in the family was dressed so much like their personalities and in colors that were finely tuned to the film's atmosphere.
Animated:
1. Happy Feet
2. Cars
3. Over the Hedge
Runner-Up: Ice Age 2
I haven't seen what anyone else put for this category but I'd imagine Happy Feet, having made the AFI top 10, is probably in. I think Cars is in and not just because it's Pixar, but because it actually is good and has some fans. Over the Hedge vs. Ice Age 2 is a harder pick. Over the Hedge was a fairly cleverly executed piece, I felt, although it was nothing special enough to stand out on its own. Still, Ice Age 2 is a sequel and sequels are just unoriginal vehicles that are designed to cash in on the popularity of their predecessor.
Visual Effects:
1. Pirates of the Carribean 2: Dead Man's Chest
2. X-Men 3
3. Superman Returns
Runner-Up: Poseidon
I think Poseidon is too CGIish to be impressive, but it has its moments. X-Men 3, possibly even more so than its predecessors had some very impressive visuals to boast. Bringing Magneto's metal-manipulating powers, Storm's hurricanes, Pyro's fire and Iceman's ice to life are all very impressive. Superman Returns was a failure of a movie because of its storyline and not because of its special effects, which even i concede were impressive. Lastly, the conversion from Bill Nighy to Davy Jones is enough to cement the visual effects oscar right there.
The rest of the categories, I'm really not qualified to give an opinion on, so I'll refrain.
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