Video: Counting down my top 12 performances of the year

Probably the last 2019 in review video. Jordan Lage and I count down our top 12 favorite performances.  Thanks so much Jordan!
Because this is a longish one at 29 minutes, let's add some time stamps:
Time stamps: 0:37 Jordan #12 Roman Griffith Davis/Thomasin McKenzie (tie): JoJo Rabbit 2:02 Orrin #12 Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name, #11 Ian McKellen, The Good Liar 4:22 Jordan #11 Davine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name, #10 Wesley Snipes, Dolemite is My Name, #9 Charlize Theron, Bombshell 5:44 Orrin #10 Margaret Qualley, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, #9 Laura Dern, Marraige Story, #8 Daniel Craig, Knives Out 8:08 Side discussion: Who's the best actor to play Bond 9:05 Jordan: #8 and #7 Matt Damon, Christain Bale, Ford vs Ferrarri 9:51 Orrin #7 Ray Liotta, Marraige Story, #6 Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky 11:30 Jordan #6 Park So-dam, Parasite 12:24 Orrin #5 Kang-ho Sang, Parasite 14:06 Jordan #5 Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory 15:46 Orrin #4 Scarlett Johansson, JoJo Rabbit 17:00 Jordan #4 Rene Zellweger, Judy 19:12 Orrin #3 Jonothan Pryce, The Two Popes 20:37 Jordan #3 Leonardo DiCpario, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 21:52 Orrin #2 George McKay, 1917 22:51 Jordan #2 Awkwafina, Farewell 24:44 Orrin #1 Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes 27:16 Jordan #1 Robert DeNiro, The Irishman
Jordan Lage  is a co-founder of a the Atlantic theater company and has many impressive credentials. His website is www.jordanlage.com

Top 30 Actors: 2015 Year-End Hollywood Actor Power Ranking

This is a list of best actors working today based on how likely it is today that if you cast them in your movie, that film will succeed commercially and/or in terms of critical/awards recognition with weight given to the last three or four years or so.

Also, worth noting, I'll reference Oscar nominationss and BP appearances but I pay attention to other stuff like BAFTA, GGs, how often it appears on critics' top ten lists, comments on IMDB message boards, but Oscars are slightly easier to cite and to remember.

This power ranking was written at the end of 2015, so view it as a snapshot of December 31, 2015. The last edition (published December 2012) was here:

Chime in and tell me who you think should move in or out, up and down

1. Matt Damon-I'm thinking back to 2006 when Scorsese cast both DiCaprio and Damon as leads in the Departed and Ed Zwick and Robert De Niro reportedly agreed to basically work around Departed's schedule for their prestige films (Blood Diamond which succeeded and Good Shepard which er.. had noble intentions). Since then, they've been pretty much the go-to guys for any prestige project wracking up Oscar buzz wherever they go, picking among the most innovative projects, killing it on the acting side, and generating good will as Hollywood ambassadors. I give the edge to Damon because he has better commercial appeal (The Bourne series, The Martian). I don't think Damon would invest himself in a prestige film without commercial legs like DiCaprio

did with J. Edgar and I don't think DiCaprio would be willing to play action or humor.

2. Leonardo DiCaprio-At this point, the current generation of young adults has grown up with Leonardo DiCaprio as the very capable star of all of their favorite films. His status is summed up pretty well by Sasha Stone at Awards Daily makes a convincing case that pretty much the only thing teenagers know about the Oscars is that DiCaprio doesn't have one.

"I suspect one of the biggest draws, in addition to Creed and The Martian, to encourage the younger generations to give a damn about the Oscars will be the question of whether or not Leonardo DiCaprio can pull off a victory, since his lack of an Oscar win has become practically a cultural cause célèbre."

3. Christian Bale-One of those actors for whom the talk of his talent is mythical enough that you've (or at least I have) heard the "best of his generation" appraisals of his in the years leading up to his breakout roles. The centerpiece of the most successful tent pole trilogy with Dark Knight, he can carry an action franchise and although he failed to do the Terminator series justice in 2009's Terminator Salvation, it says a lot that he was cast as the guy to resurrect another franchise. Critically, he's a staple of David O Russell's high-flying Oscar streak in the 2010s and he's back in the Oscar conversation this year with a third nomination and a 3rd BP film in Big Short. Also working with Terrence Malick.

4. Benedict Cumberbatch-Extremely talented and versatile guy who just won an Emmy in TV and has been in Oscar BP films in the past couple years (he's been in 4 BP noms total if you count War Horse and Atonement) along with an action role in Star Trek II. Of all the up-and-comers, I think he is posed for longevity

5.Bradley Cooper-His Inside the Actor's Studio pedigree and his friendly intensity off-screen does wonders in making him a likeable box office draw (IMO). He was in 3 BP nominees in the past few years and had tentpole/comic potential in the Hangover series. It helps a lot that he didn't do his last BP nominee with Eastwood which shows he can succeed outside of the David O Russell factory. Pretty untarnished by Aloha and Burnt was a fun lightweight change of pace for him.

6. Michael Fassbender-X-Men and Prometheus are fine enough tent pole credentials and he's pretty much all over the map in high-end directors-David Cronenberg, Steve McQueen, Ridley Scott, Danny Boyle,etc. and with the exception of Prometheus, Shame, A Dangerous Method, 12 Years a Slave and Steve Jobs have all been critical darlings. As evidence of his pedigree, consider how Jobs was not treated as a must-watch film with Ashton Kutcher in the lead

7. Brad Pitt-Clooney and Pitt are arguably more poster boys of the ideal Hollywood actor in the 2000's than the best and most productive actors and I think there’s a division. If not, Elvis Prestley and Frank Sinatra would have been the best actors of the 50’s. The thing is unlike Clooney, Pitt still has the potential to do his best acting in future films. He really broke out as a top tier actor in 2011 by turning in two of the best performances of anyone that year in Oscar BP nominees (Tree of Life & Proof of Life). With appearances in two other BP nominees in the last three years, he’s still relevant.

8. Joaquin Phoenix-He doesn’t get that “best actor of his generation” buzz that DiCaprio or Bale get, but can I make the argument that he should? Pretty much every film he touches puts it in the Oscar race every year-Her got nominated and Master and Inherent Vice were pretty darn close. This year, he did a Woody Allen which rarely generates buzz outside of the Woody Allen fanbase and generally lives or dies on the strength of its writing (I don’t think Charlize Theron killed Curse of Jaded Scorpion’s chances).

9. Denzel Washington-The #Oscarssowhite movement could benefit him in the future as people will have to put their money where their mouth is and treat his next films like gold. Since the early 90’s, he’s been one of Hollywood’s most dependable brands and in that sense he’s pretty much timeless. Filming a Magnificent Seven remake now that I have no doubt his name on the marquis will help.

10. Will Smith-From about 1996 to say 2009, Smith was pretty much the most dependable box office draw Hollywood had (Men in Black III was riding on past glory), and while he’s out of it, there’s little

evidence he couldn’t return and Concussion gave him a decent shot at a third Oscar nom which isn’t shabby.

11.Johnny Depp-I would have ranked him in the top 5 about five or six years ago. He is still loved as the epitome of a talented actor making daring choices. Even though Alice in Wonderland and Lone Ranger are highly commercial, he miraculously holds onto a reputation as an artist’s artist. Fewer of them have panned out in the past year but his brand is strong with Jack Sparrow and Alice in Wonderland (both of which sequels have already been planned out).

12. George Clooney-He hasn’t had a noteworthy performance since 2011 and I imagine that’s starting to count for something. The Monuments Men and Tomorrowland were both highly forgettable and his role in Gravity wasn’t as essential as advertised. The fact that Hail Cesar is coming out in February indicates that this is more Ladykillers than No Country for Old Men. Then again, he’s on the front pages of tabloids and is constantly name checked as Mr. Hollywood, so that capital still goes a long way, but to some degree it’s worth mentioning that he’s more the posterboy for Hollywood than the most successful actor working today.

13. Matthew McConaughey-Hollywood isn’t as now-obsessed as one would imagine. The McConassaince was more of a 2012-2013 thing, effectively ended by Insterstellar, but the world is still this guy’s oyster. He’s already had the likeable quality that still can drive a romcom but he’s added the bearings of a prestige actor to his resume and at times he’s been the top choice for a prestige part like Interstellar. Plus True Detective.

14. Ryan Gosling-Mr. Handsome has not been particularly steady but he’s liable to pop up in any given year and kill it whether 2007 (Lars and the Real Girl), 2011 (Drive, Crazy Stupid Love) or 2015 (The Big Short).

15. Hugh Jackman-Like Bradley Cooper and McConaughey, Jackman has cultivated a persona offscreen as likeable and there’s a school of thought that it helps his brand immensely. He’s extremely versatile

in genres – musicals, historical epics, comedies, superhero flicks- and his Oscar nomination three years ago gives him that prestige.

16. Ralph Fiennes-Primarily known as the classy British guy of refined heritage you plug into period pieces -- The White Countess, Quiz Show, End of the Affair, Avenger -- he's shown a lot of range as a villain with Red Dragon and the Harry Potter films and last year, broke out as a comic star. He can definitely bend quite a bit if Hollywood. He's actually been in 6 best picture nominees-Quiz Show, Schindler's List, English Patient, Reader, Hurt Locker, and GBH, so he knows how to pick them too.

17. Tom Hardy- There's a bunch of young guys who have broken out recently -- Joseph GL, Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield, Henry Cavill -- but Hardy's had somewhat of a cult following since Bronson and Layer Cake and many of his film choices are credible indie darlings (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy was he first English language film of Tomas Alfredson, Warrior was also a pretty low budget thing) and he can step over to a big tentpole film like Mad Max and Inception. Was in 2 BP nominees this year.

18. Michael Keaton-Like McConaughey a couple years ago, Keaton is at a place where he's pretty hot and can pretty much do anything. He followed up Birdman with a film that has a good chance at winning the Best Picture Oscar again. Personally, I've never seen him as a great actor, but it's not about me but an objective ranking.

19. Sean Penn-Like Bale, he gets the "best of his generation" tag a bit, and he is that good. He was definitely top 5 material in the 2000's, but he hasn't been particularly active lately. I also feel a possibility that he might be heading the path of Mel Gibson and becoming so unlikeable as a public persona that it might affect his box office (the El Chapo interview didn't look good for him)

20. Robert Downey Jr.-He has the tentpole credentials of Iron Man (the centerpiece of the megasuccessful Avengers) and Sherlock Holmes and brings his own brand of cool to the former and a refusal to see the part as lowly genre fare to the latter (for which he got a Golden Globe). He is an exceptional actor and can make a smart character emotionally affecting BUT he did some damage to his reputation with The Judge. It's not just that the film bombed but it showed Downey Jr going back to the same character tics of his more acclaimed roles and suggested he might not have that many tricks left in the bag.

21. Ben Affleck-He has a highly complicated relationship with the public and has undergone two of the most bizarre cases of celebrity worship gone wrong (with Gigli and his casting as Batman) but he is a Hollywood pro who is extremely intelligent about his career and his future, and deep Hollywood knows it (case in point: the public outpouring of love for his Argo win was a de facto "we're sorry we were so *beep* to you ten years ago" apology). Although he has a BAFTA nom (for Argo), he's not Sean Penn-level good but he's a capable leading man, and has enough clout as a producer/director/man about town to find films that cater to his strengths as an actor (Hollywoodland and Gone Girl were perfect matches of it).

22. Will Ferrell-The most reliable comic actor in Hollywood. He wasn't in Adam McKay's last film but he's a frequent collaborator so if McKay's getting a boost so should he. Neither Get Hard not Daddy's Home was a stroke of genius but he's creative enough in defining characters that there's little reason to count his ability to bring an iconic Ron Burgundy-like character in his next outing.

23. Tom Hanks-Like Denzel Washington, he's simply timeless. He will definitely get anyone the attention of someone who's maybe 35 or older with every project he does. He's not Mr. Now, but strangely enough he's been in 4 best picture nominee in the last six years: Toy Story 3, EL & IC, Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies.

Loses points because Da Vinci Code never really caught on and Hanks really could have had the power to make that film an event picture if he played the part like Indiana Jones.

24. Mark Ruffalo-He's on his third Oscar nomination since 2010 and has been in such critically acclaimed works as Kids are Allright, Foxcatcher, Spotlight, while doing indie fare such as Infinitely Polar Bear and Begin Again, AND playing a big role in the Marvel Universe. He even improved on past performances of The Hulk.

25. Channing Tatum- Built like an action herobut plays that tortured youth persona that I equate with James Dean or Montgomery Clift. He has talent and if he doesn’t have the requisite talent,

it’s clear he chooses his parts with great ambition.

26. Steve Carell-He's a guy who can play comedy and lead a film and is getting some dramatic acclaim. Ironic as it is, but I think Date Night was the best example I've seen of him carrying a movie as the straight guy like Paul Rudd or Jason Bateman does and that is a big skill.

27. Chris Pratt-The man of the moment for headlining the two biggest hits of the past two summers. I love this guy but there I have to question how much range he has outside of bringing a different

sort of energy to an action film.

28. Seth Rogen-One of the most bankable funnymen and his ability to co-direct lets him control his own image more. His serious role in Steve Jobs wasn’t full fledged Jerry Lewis playing a sad clown in terms of comic going full dramatic, but it showed that like Louis CK and Zach Galifiranakis, he can be dropped into a prestige drama without inducing a humongous laughing fit from the audience

29. Liam Neeson-Whether Neeson is one of the most successful actors today depends on whether you think there's merit in taking on three to four movies a year indiscriminately. Personally, I think being a workaholic is benefitting him as it's getting his name out there more and odds are sooner or later, he's going to walk into a great film or a great role. Besides, no one is alleging he's making these movies worse through his presence. He has always been an extremely gifted actor. As he's stated in interviews, the reasons that he's taking on more roles are because it helps him stay busy in the wake of his wife's death so who is going to fault him for that.

30. Daniel Craig-If outacting every James Bond that came before him wasn't enough, he's already had roles that showed off great acting chops (Infamous, Munich, even Road to Perdition) and is positioned to take on more high-caliber roles with Bond behind him.

My Oscar wish list

Dear Oscars,

First off, I'd like to thank you for:
1. Nominating Leonardo DiCaprio
Despite being a three-time Oscar nominee, DiCaprio gets overlooked quite a bit. DiCaprio's role in Wolf of Wall Street is not just another great role indicative of the best actor of his generation (I can't speak from personal experience) but one that has been sparking water cooler discussion as well
2. Nominating Amy Adams and Christian Bale in American Hustle
While I'm not a huge fan of Cooper or Lawrence's performances, Adams and Bale are both phenomenal in their categories. I see Amy Adams in approximately 2-3 films a year (not intentionally. It just so happens she's in everything) and I've never seen these sexy and vulnerable sides to her. Christian Bale completely transforms into his role as well.
3. Snubbing Oprah for Best Supporting Actress
She's a talk show host who doesn't need an acting award. The five people who were nominated in place of her all act for a living and would likely benefit from it more.
4. Nominating guys like Pharell, U2, and Arcade Fire in the music categories
At the Golden Globes, with Justin Timberlake, Taylor Swift, Coldplay, and U2 all being nominated for best original song, we had that category alone having more twitter followers than all the other categories combined. Three of those artists got left off but I won't really miss them. We now have music producer and all-around cool guy Pharrell Williams and Arcade Fire nominated for Oscars in addition to U2. Great to see popular music artists at the Oscars.
5. Selecting nine solid films
This is somewhat subjective but I think this is the first year I can remember where I'm actually excited to see all nine films. I've seen six (seeing a seventh tonight) and have nothing but positive things to say about all of them and the other three look promising as well.


Please:

1. Choose a good host for the Oscars ceremony
This one has already been botched. Ellen DeGeneres is a wonderful personal success story having risen from gay pariah from a less tolerant era to America's favorite talk show host. But that was ten years ago and being gay or lesbian should be no big deal. I'd argue she's no longer the funniest lesbian comedian (Wanda Sykes is) or the most adorable out actress named Ellen (hello Ellen Page) anymore. In other words, we should be at the point where Ellen DeGeneres should be awarded or denied something as prestigious as the host of the world's most viewed television event on the basis of her merits. While she's great at certain things, I don't believe hosting an Oscars telecast is one of them. Her whimsy observational humor consisted barely registered the last time she hosted the Oscars in 2007 and this is even more of a travesty when there are so many gifted comedians who would kill at this gig.

2. Give Bruce Dern a solid chance
If you told me two years ago that Matthew McConaughey-- who has spent fifteen years as a poster boy for acting mediocrity -- would have a string of good roles in 2012 that boosted him to even better roles in 2013 including one that would land him an Oscar, I would have thought you were insane. Before I saw "Dallas Buyers Club", I spent much of this Oscar season thinking McConaughey's winning streak was shameful considering he was such a lousy actor for so long. I now understand what the buzz is about: McConaughey walking away with the Oscar wouldn't be a travesty as it's a capable performance. The thing is Dern also blows you away. Comparing Dern's performance to McConaughey's performance is like apples and oranges but I hope voters are giving Dern a solid consideration. After all, McConaughey's been a great film actor for two years, Dern's been at the top of his game for a period nearly twenty times that long.

3. Allow the performers to sing. Show some decent clips.
There are so many opinions on what works and what doesn't  in the "Oscars." I think most can agree that montages tend to be excessive. Personally, I think a short clip for each film and a film for each performance are most welcome additions. It even becomes somewhat of a parlor game among Oscar buzzers to guess which clips will be shown for which nominees so don't deprive them of that.
The Oscars tend to play with the format for score and song quite a bit. This is a year where we have some great musical artists so not letting them play during the ceremony would be a mistake.
 
4. Don't award Jennifer Lawrence a victory
Not only is she not that good in her role, she just won last year and is only 23 years old. Two-time Oscar winners are a rather elite club: There's no need to let her in prematurely. Of course, the Oscar should be decided on merit but let me point you to that "not that good" part of my argument above.

5. Give the original screenplay to "Her"
There seems to be some sense that David O. Russell is owed something because he's been nominated three of the last four years in the picture and director categories. That's simply not true. Being nominated three times is humongous for someone like David O. Russell who isn't yet idolized in film schools and doesn't have an amazing commercial reputation. We can afford to give the screenplay to the best candidate in this scenario and that would be "Her" by a mile. It's innovative, it's delicate, it's well-paced, and it's both depressing and inspiring. Besides,  Russell didn't even write "American Hustle" the way you saw it on the screen with all the ad-libbing and scenes that were entirely thrown in at the last minute. Russell deserves more credit as a director this year and unfortunately better candidates have that slot locked up.

Some Notes on the Great Gatsby

My original entry on the Great Gatsby was complete with visuals, videos and a full multi-paragraph review but unfortunately the Blogger software mysteriously deleted it. The moral of the story? Wordpress is the answer.

In any case, here is an early draft of that review:

• A product from Baz Luhrmann, the film was certainly guilty of what TV Tropes (www.tvtropes.org) calls anachronism stew. The clearest examples of this are that much of the diagetic sound track would not have rap music and the costumes would not have been as revealing. This is an unusual case of anachronism stew, however, because it's how the film is marketed:"Come see Great Gatsby with Baz Luhrmann! Watch what happens when Baz Luhrmann mixes up a 1920's story with 21st century sensibilities and various trappings of all historic eras in between." Thus, every historic inaccuracy isn't so much a gaff but an artistic choice which makes the critical viewing experience a lot different. If you're not intimately familiar with the 1920's, it's an instinctual trust that what you're watching is inaccurate.
• In reality, the soundtrack isn't as obnoxious as the trailer made it out to be with a screeching rendition of "Happy Together" combined with out-of-place rap music turned up to eleven. There's maybe two or three rap songs, a nicely reworked "Crazy in Love" (music director Jay-Z felt the need to plug his wife), and a U2 song but also a full orchestration of Rhapsody in Blue and an appropriately placed jazz trumpet. If anything the fast-paced editing was the main culprit for distraction. 
• This film also narrowly beats out the Da Vinci Code for laziest use of stock footage I've ever seen in a film. It was fortunately used in such small doses that anyone hardly remembers
• I imagine the audience score (80% of moviegoers in exit polls liked it as opposed to 50% of critics) was so high because the trailer and Baz Luhrmann's reputation were sufficient enough to steer anyone away who might give the film a thumbs down. In other words, Great Gatsby should be measured more on box office receipts because it already narrowed its audience with a polarizing preview. Previews are not supposed to be polarizing as they are generally created by film studios and not the director and those studios tend to like the widest audience possible. I imagine it was an inadvertent effect. 
• Leo DiCaprio has had some of the best film performances of the last decade and deserves any role he wants, every one of the 51 times he said "Old Sport," I felt he just lacked the presence and gravity to carry it. While he is in his mid-to-late-30s, he plays around 30 which is a bit young for the part. I'm not suggesting Robert Redford is a better actor than Leo DiCaprio, but he looked exactly how Gatsby should as spelled out in the novel: A little older, broad-shouldered, aristocratic, distinguished. 
• The hypervisual style of Baz Luhrmann can be wonderful at times and not work at others. The use of color in certain sequences (like Nick's first party) was especially wonderful in that your eye was drawn to the different colors on every flapper's dress. The tea party seemed like a slightly sunnier version of a Tim Burton film. The junkyard where Isla Fisher's garage was located was depicted as a bleak landscape that evoked more questions than answers and there was probably some symbolic reason as to why some post-apocalyptic landscape would exist between Great Neck, Long Island and Manhattan (if I'm not mistaken Flushing Meadows exists between those two cities, it's a very nice park). I don't suspect anyone thinks there's some consistent visual motif to the whole movie but rather just a lot of nifty things to look at..

• I don't understand why Gatsby drove at super sonic speeds. I suppose at a certain point, the only explanation is that it's a Baz Luhrmann film but I imagine a car in the 1920's was probably going 30 miles per hour at best. 
• On a somewhat related note: I have some cousins who live in Great Neck, New York which is what West and East End are a stand-in for. If you look on Google Earth you can see why the towns have those names. My cousins even showed me a house off in the woods that was supposedly the inspiration for Gatsby's mansion
• Speaking of the mansion, I thought it was a plot hole that Gatsby would have a whole army of manservants. Maybe, he just contracted them for the parties. Wasn't he a humongous recluse?
• Hello, Elizabeth Debicki! I will keep my eye out for your future filmography as you stole the show here

What was the theme of Gangs of New York?

I just saw Gangs of New York from start to finish for the very first time. The film, dating from the holiday season of 2002 is best known as the first of Martin Scorsesee's three grandiose efforts to come up with something masterpiece-ish so he could nab himself an Oscar so he can safely retire into the proverbial cinematic hall of fame. It was a film of impressive scope and it has its advocates and detractors but admittedly, the bar was set very high with the expectations.

The film is certainly an epic, so watching it on TV at home is an experience open to distractions, but in a theater I can imagine it to be even better. The best quality of the film is its authenticity (or rather one of the two best qualities, see Daniel Day-Lewis), it was meticulously researched and takes us to a very interesting period in history. What could be more interesting than New York before all the sky scrapers came up?

Cameron Diaz gives an excellent performance that completely erases the image of Hollywood lightweight and Leo DiCaprio was starting to transition around this time to pretty-looking childstar to an actor admired by his peers. There's a great ensemble and an interesting web of characters including John C Reilley, Jim Broadbent and Brendan Gleeson.

Day-Lewis, one of the other two things the movie is well-known for, created one of the most
memorable characters of the decade. He nearly won an Oscar for one of the most subtle and nuanced performances to be nominated for best actor this decade. This is all the more impressive when you consider that in this day and age, the path to earning Oscar love is to play mentally ill, be bombastic in execution, or play a real-life figure with the utmost precision. Day-Lewis's performance was none of those: Day-Lewis just infused the character with fully-fleshed out details and made him interesting in every second he was onscreen. Day-Lewis's performance had the most buzz that season, and not in terms of Oscar buzz: Bill the Butcher was water cooler talk even for people who aren't Oscar buffs, and he did it again this past year with Daniel Plainview in There Will Be Blood. His win for There Will Be Blood was as much for Gangs of New York as it was for this past year.


What I found interesting was the feeling of contradiction between the Oscar-nominated song "Hands that Built America" which I might take to be the theme, with the actual events of the story. To put it bluntly, I just kind of felt a sense of tragedy, because it's not like these gangs actually accomplished anything heroic and were remembered in history. All they did was kill each other. It was like what the aristocrat said to boss tweed about one half of the poor being hired to kill the other half. I don't feel like any character made any lasting contributions (beyond Tweed) towards anything historically that enables America or New York to exist as it is today. Amsterdam's efforts to get McGinn elected were in vain. There efforts to incite a riot against the draft and get the attention of people in power to change anything were equally in vain because the higher-ups jsut brought out some cannons and killed them like they were all just insignificant thugs. I think Scorsesee wanted me to empathize with their causes more than the people who ran New York at the time wanted them to, but in all fairness, these people "were not the hands that built America." They tried to build America and put forth a noble effort but ultimately they didn't change anything.

my oscar predictions

I've been looking through some of these oscar sites and have devised my own predictions but I think the oscar sites are having this problem of perceiving that "oscar buzz" is some sort of wildly fluctuating barometer. One of the oscar sites I went to, described "Pan's Labrynth" and "Children of Men" as surging ahead. I think in reality, film's aren't surging or falling in some kind of race, it's simply that our perception of how the films are changing as some new group comes out with an award. That might be part of the fun, anyway, that people love the oscar race so much. Nevertheless, even though i am somewhat tired, i thought i would make some predictions in the event that i am completely right and have noone to tell that to. By posting them with a timestamp that comes before the oscars are announced, i have some proof.

My predictions aren't really that far off from what anyone else has. They're in order of the degree of certainty that they'll be nominated, not n
Best Picture:
1. Departed
2. Dreamgirls
3. Babel
4. The Queen
5. Letters from Iwo Jima
Runner-Up: Little Miss Sunshine
I loved Little Miss Sunshine, but i thought i'd mix it up. I still don't see why people wouldn't vote for Letters from Iwo Jima. Honestly, though, i really can't decide between the two, but i'll take a risk. Queen, like Capote last year, is good but not great. Not grandiose or bold enough in ambition to really feel like an oscar contender, but it will unfortunately make the list anyway. Still, not so bad. To have Dreamgirls, Babel, Departed and either Letters of Little Miss Sunshine makes it a great year.

Director:
1. Martin Scorsesee, The Departed
2. Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel
3. Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
4. Stephen Frears, The Queen
5. Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Runner-Up: Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labrynth
Everyone's all over Pan's Labrynth lately, and I'm starting to think it might possibly be a masterpiece of a film that the academy would be foolish not to reward, but here in this category, i think it's a bit competitive. Iwo Jima is getting 4 star reviews all across the board and has already won a golden globe as well as the NBR, it would be foolish to think Eastwood would get left out and that some of the Iwo Jima buzz is lost. He's the success story of the decade. I also really can't see how Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu could not get a best director nom. He's one of the top 3 pictures and next to Scorsesee, i think he's the most secure director. People have their doubts about Condon a little and The Queen was seen more as a triumph in acting, but they all have a better chance than that married couple. For mixing-up purposes, I don't like, though when the directors and films match up, so perhaps i'd want Sunshine to get the picture nom and Eastwood to get the director nom.

Original Screenplay:
1. The Queen
2. Little Miss Sunshine
3. Babel
4. Stranger than Fiction
5. Pan's Labrynth
Runner-Up: Bobby
I think Bobby is an endearing piece that wins the audience over emotionally and not neccessarily technically (as in, you're thinking "what a great storyline!"). The storyline's a bit muddled up with too many unneccessary parts, but i'm rooting for it heavily. Stranger than Fiction was a superbly written screenplay and i hope it gets a part, and Pan's Labrynth I'll give Bobby's spot to. Little Miss Sunshine is very deserving.

Adapted Screenplay:
1. William Moynahan, The Departed
2. Todd Field and Tom Perrota, Little Children
3. Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal
4. William Boyle and Paul Haggis, Flags of Our Fathers
5. Garrison Keillor, Prairie Home Companion
Runner-Up: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
The screenplay awards are often an unofficial top 10 list from the academy, as they give an indication of what the academy might have nominated if they were aloud 5 extra films in the best picture category. That being said, Little Children was a top 10 film, pretty much, and it's writing-heavy so people are pretty eager to reward it there. The Departed is a certainty, pretty much due to the best picture lock and due to the fact that people are familiar with the source material and like what Scorsesee and Co. did with it. Notes on a Scandal's Patrick Marber just missed out on a nomination 2 years ago for his adaptation of Closer, so he'll get rewarded here, I think. People are not considering the fondness people had for Rob Altman and that should lend itself to a screenplay nom, in my opinion. Flags, while having been overshadowed by Iwo Jima, was still considered by many people to be an impressive film, and they like what they did with the adaptation. Thank You For Smoking, I'm not rooting for and I think it was too early in the year. Devil Wears Prada, I just think is too lightweight. In fact, I'm surprised that other groups have given Devil Wears Prada such praise and I think that maybe the academy will come to their senses and realize it's not that good. Since Dremagirls is up for best picture, and Condon has a couple noms under his built, one of which was for adapting a musical to the screen, I think if the Dreamgirls love is heavy enough, he'll get a nom.

Best Actor:
1. Leo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
2. Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland
3. Peter O'Toole, Venus
4. Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
5. Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Runner-Up: Ken Wattanabe, Letters from Iwo Jima (also Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat)
I think that DiCaprio will get enough votes for both of his parts to guarantee him at least one it onto the list. In other words, even if his votes are split between two roles, you can divide his votes in half and I think he'd still make it. Whitaker, O'Toole, and Smith have been locks for a while, and while some people are thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen will make it onto the shortlist, I hope that won't happen. It's simply because Baron Cohen wasn't acting in the conventional sense and why not award it to an actor like Gosling.

Actress:
1. Helen Mirren, The Queen
2. Penelope Cruz, Volver
3. Meryl Streep, Devil Wears Prada
4. Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
5. Kate Winslet, Little Children
Runner-Up: Annette Benning, Running with Scissors
I think the categories been set for a while with Winslet and Benning being interchangeable. I do think Benning is the spoiler, though, and not Gyllenhall. I really don't think that many people, even among the academy, have even seen Sherrybaby, and they might not have picked it out from under their screeners.

Supporitng Actor:
1. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
2. Djimon Hotsou, Blood Diamond
3. Michael Sheen, The Queen
4. Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
5. Brad Pitt, Babel
Runner-Up: Jack Nicholson, The Departed
I'm putting two people i'd love to see in this category: Affleck and Hotsou, and balancing that with someone I don't really want, because I don't think karma would be that kind to me, to give me both Affleck and Hotsou and not have a complete dud in there as well. I think that Hotsou has a very charismatic performance and if he got a nomination for In America from an underdog position, he can certainly do it again.

Eddie Murphy, I think is rediculous. Some people remember him from his brilliant SNL days, but for someone who grew up in the 90s and haven't had a chance to see a lot of the 80's SNL episodes (they're not the ones that show in syndication, usually), Eddie Murphy to me, is a guy who makes bad movies (Pluto Nash, Showtime, Bowfinger). Still, Murphy to me is the lesser of two evils. I'm playing with karma here again, because i don't want Nicholson to be nominated again. Don't get me wrong, I like Nicholson, I just don't love him and don't want to see his legacy rise too high above other actors that I think were better than him. I realistically think it would take a miracle for him not to get the nom but here's hoping.

Ben Affleck, I think is very much still in the race as is Brad Pitt from Babel and Michael Sheen, who i didn't even particularly like, I would have trouble believing he'd be left out. A great portion of the acedemy has British roots or have performed in England in some capacity so to see someone do that good of an impression of Tony Blair can't be disregarded. I just don't like Michael Sheen though. That guy has some nerve daring to enter show business and not changing his last name. He clearly wants people to believe that he's a member of the Sheen family so he can ride the coattails of Martin and Charlie, but no sir. If it were up to me, I'd love to see Wahlberg in the top 5 for The Departed, but I don't think karma will be that kind.

Also, Jackie Earl Haley, I think came onboard a little too late. Alan Arkin doesn't have enough screentime, and I don't see the point in awarding a courtesy nomination to a veteran, when unlike Alan Alda in 2004, he already has a couple nominations under his belt and he won't win, I'm pretty sure.

Supporting Actress:
1. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2. Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
3. Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
4. Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
5. Adriana Barranza, Babel
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Devil Wears Prada
Somehow, I think Breslin or Barranza might not make it through, and I want to do something unpredictable just to distinguish myself. Everyone else has this top 5, but the bottom line is i like this line-up. I like Babel's international stars getting acclaim, I'd like to see Breslin, and while I'm not so crazy about Blanchett, she deserves it too. Personally, I felt Emily Blunt was the second best supporting female performance i saw this year (behind Meryl Streep's Prairie Home Companion turn) but I don't want to see Devil Wears Prada get too many awards. I could also see Sharon Stone getting in here.

Cinametography:
1. Babel
2. Good German
3. Apocolypto
4. Letters from Iwo Jima
5. Blood Diamond
Runner-Up: Children of Men
Good German might have gotten bad reviews but Sodebergh went to great lengths to get the film stock pretty much exactly as it was 50 years ago, i can't believe he'd be snubbed for cinematography. I think Pan's Labrynth will get a nom in the art direction category rather than this one. Blood Diamond should get a nom, in my opinion, for doing the dirty work of going on location and I think the resulting shots speak for themselves.

Art Direction:
1. Pan's Labrynth
2. Apocolypto
3. Children of Men
4. Dreamgirls
5. Bobby
Runner-Up: Letters from Iwo Jima
Bobby recreated that hotel pretty impressively, Pan's Labrynth, Apocolypto and Children of Men are all about the art direction. Dreamgirls, a lavish musical lends itself well to that stuff.

Song:
1. "Song of the Heart" Prince, Happy Feet
2. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" Arethra Franklin, Mary J Blige, Bobby
3. "A Father's Way" Seal, Pursuit of Happyness
4. "Shine on them" Nas, Blood Diamond
5. "Till the End of Time" DeVotchka, Little Miss Sunshine
Runner-Up: "Our Town" Thomas Newman, Cars
I think this is a song line-up I can live with. Blood Diamond's "Shine on Them" is about a subject which the songwriter is clearly passionate about. Seal gets a nomination for "Pursuit of Happyness" because he's Seal and he'll rock the Oscar awards ceremony. "Till the End of Time" is an awesome song that certainly complements the indie feel of the movie and adds another nomination for Little Miss Sunshine. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" is a collaboration of a past and present great and it gives a nom to Bobby which I'm happy with. Lastly, I'm not a big fan of anything called "Song of the Heart" as it sounds like a dumb song title, but since it won at the golden globes i'm inclined not to leave it out.

Costumes
1. Dreamgirls
2. Pan's Labrynth
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Apocolypto
5. Little Miss Sunshine
Runner-Up: Marie Antoinette
Again, since Dreamgirls is a showy musical, it's gotta have costumes. Pan's Labrynth has costumes that are impressive, I imagine. Flags of Our Fathers is a period military piece and has more recognizeable costumes than Letters and Little Miss Sunshine, I just happened to notice the way everyone in the family was dressed so much like their personalities and in colors that were finely tuned to the film's atmosphere.

Animated:
1. Happy Feet
2. Cars
3. Over the Hedge
Runner-Up: Ice Age 2
I haven't seen what anyone else put for this category but I'd imagine Happy Feet, having made the AFI top 10, is probably in. I think Cars is in and not just because it's Pixar, but because it actually is good and has some fans. Over the Hedge vs. Ice Age 2 is a harder pick. Over the Hedge was a fairly cleverly executed piece, I felt, although it was nothing special enough to stand out on its own. Still, Ice Age 2 is a sequel and sequels are just unoriginal vehicles that are designed to cash in on the popularity of their predecessor.

Visual Effects:
1. Pirates of the Carribean 2: Dead Man's Chest
2. X-Men 3
3. Superman Returns
Runner-Up: Poseidon
I think Poseidon is too CGIish to be impressive, but it has its moments. X-Men 3, possibly even more so than its predecessors had some very impressive visuals to boast. Bringing Magneto's metal-manipulating powers, Storm's hurricanes, Pyro's fire and Iceman's ice to life are all very impressive. Superman Returns was a failure of a movie because of its storyline and not because of its special effects, which even i concede were impressive. Lastly, the conversion from Bill Nighy to Davy Jones is enough to cement the visual effects oscar right there.

The rest of the categories, I'm really not qualified to give an opinion on, so I'll refrain.